COVID-19: endemic doesnt mean harmless – Nature.com

It does not indicate that COVID-19 will come to a natural end.To an epidemiologist, an endemic infection is one in which overall rates are fixed– not rising, not falling. Theres more to global health policy than learning to live with endemic rotavirus, liver disease C or measles.Stating that an infection will become endemic states absolutely nothing about how long it may take to reach tension, what the case rates, morbidity levels or death rates will be or, crucially, how much of a population– and which sectors– will be susceptible. Nor does it suggest ensured stability: there can still be disruptive waves from endemic infections, as seen with the United States measles outbreak in 2019. Health policies and specific behaviour will determine what kind– out of lots of possibilities– endemic COVID-19 takes.Soon after the Alpha alternative spread out and emerged in late 2020, I argued that, unless infections were reduced, viral evolution would be fast and unforeseeable, with the development of more versions with possibly more-dangerous and various biological qualities. Beta and Gamma were also highly unsafe, but did not spread out to the same extent.The same infection can trigger endemic, pandemic or epidemic infections: it depends on the interaction of a populations behaviour, group structure, vulnerability and resistance, plus whether viral variations emerge.

Completing Interests
The author declares no contending interests.

Theres more to global health policy than learning to live with endemic rotavirus, liver disease C or measles.Stating that an infection will become endemic says nothing about how long it might take to reach tension, what the case rates, morbidity levels or death rates will be or, most importantly, how much of a population– and which sectors– will be prone. Health policies and specific behaviour will determine what kind– out of many possibilities– endemic COVID-19 takes.Soon after the Alpha variant emerged and spread in late 2020, I argued that, unless infections were reduced, viral evolution would be quick and unpredictable, with the development of more variations with possibly more-dangerous and different biological qualities. Beta and Gamma were also extremely unsafe, however did not spread to the exact same extent.The very same infection can cause endemic, pandemic or epidemic infections: it depends on the interplay of a populations behaviour, market structure, susceptibility and immunity, plus whether viral variants emerge.

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