A effective and safe vaccine would be a shot in the arm for a world thats burnt out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The excellent news is that theres a lot of work going on to produce simply such a vaccine. A minimum of 19 novel-coronavirus vaccine candidates are now in scientific screening, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Another 130 candidates are currently in preclinical trials.
You shouldnt get your hopes too high for COVID-19 vaccines. Here are 3 reasons that.
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1. The possibility of success isnt as terrific as you may believe
Lots of Americans presume that regulative approval of a vaccine is ideal around the corner. President Donald Trump even publicly recommended that a “vaccine option” for COVID-19 will be available “long prior to the end of the year.” However these assumptions could be off-base.
WHOs list of COVID-19 vaccines includes only one U.S.-made prospect in phase 2 testing. AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) and its partner, the University of Oxford, are currently recruiting for participants in a phase 3 research study for their COVID-19 vaccine prospect.
Just around 24% of vaccines in phase 2 scientific testing go on to win approval from the Food and Drug Administration, according to a historical analysis performed by biopharmaceutical trade group BIO. That percentage leaps to 74% for vaccines in stage 3 testing.
2. COVID-19 vaccines might not be as efficient as you anticipate
Even if one or more COVID-19 vaccines win FDA approval, they may not be as reliable as you d expect. Why? When it comes to efficacy, the bar isnt all that high.
Recently, the FDA provided standards for its review and approval procedure for COVID-19 vaccine candidates. To be thought about effective, a vaccine just has to “prevent disease or reduce its seriousness in at least 50% of individuals who are vaccinated.”
This limit isnt uncommon for the first vaccines versus a virus for which no vaccines currently exist. However, it also means that theres a real possibility that amongst those who receive a COVID-19 vaccine, almost half wont be efficiently immunized against the novel coronavirus.
3. Many Americans will refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine
Michael Jordan once stated, “You miss 100% of the shots you dont take.” He was, obviously, describing basketball. The concept is also pertinent to COVID-19 vaccines.
A study performed by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research in May discovered that just 49% of Americans said that they planned to get immunized if a vaccine versus the unique coronavirus appears. That number isnt too unexpected, thinking about that its roughly in line with the percentage of American adults who get the influenza vaccine.
Its possible that more Americans would desire to be vaccinated against the novel coronavirus. Another 31% of the survey respondents specified that they werent sure about getting a COVID-19 vaccine. However, if the percentage of Americans who refuse to be immunized isnt high enough, even an effective vaccine wont be sufficient to avoid COVID-19 from spreading.
Still a huge chance
The possibilities for approval, effectiveness, and potential immunization rates do not paint a motivating picture. Nevertheless, theres still an opportunity that one or more COVID-19 vaccines that are extremely effective will win regulatory approval and gain extensive public acceptance.
And theres still a huge opportunity for investors hoping that coronavirus-focused biotech stocks pay off in a huge way. For instance, even though its shares have tripled up until now this year, Moderna would nearly certainly skyrocket even higher if mRNA-1273 succeeds in late-stage screening.
Any vaccine thats reliable and safe adequate to protect approval will assist in the battle versus COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccines may not be the magic bullet that many expect. Combined with brand-new treatments and better testing, they might be part of a general toolbox that makes it possible for the world to move past the pandemic and return to regular.
A reliable and safe vaccine would be a shot in the arm for a world thats grown weary of the COVID-19 pandemic. WHOs list of COVID-19 vaccines consists of just one U.S.-made prospect in phase 2 testing. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) recently revealed that its late-stage research study of COVID-19 vaccine candidate mRNA-1273 would be postponed. AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) and its partner, the University of Oxford, are currently hiring for individuals in a stage 3 study for their COVID-19 vaccine prospect.
Even if one or more COVID-19 vaccines win FDA approval, they may not be as reliable as you d expect.